{"as_of":"2026-10-02","combiner":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","country":"CA","covered":true,"data_age_days":1,"full_panel_auc":0.8902755897250286,"generated_at":"2026-10-03T06:30:22.945830+00:00","honest_caveats":["FORWARD-VALIDATED (the real product): in a strict past->future temporal holdout the CROSS-COUNTRY ranking holds \u2014 full-panel AUC ~0.87, country-ranking AUC ~0.90, 7.8x PR-lift over base rate. The model reliably tells you WHICH countries are heading into danger, forward in time. BUT the within-country median AUC is CROSS-SECTIONAL (full panel, in-sample isotonic) \u2014 it measures day-ranking when the model has seen the whole period, NOT forward skill. In a strict past->future temporal holdout, within-country timing AUC is ~0.38 (below chance), for BOTH v5 and v9, driven by non-stationarity (shutdowns cluster in time). USE THIS MODEL FOR *WHICH* COUNTRY IS AT RISK (cross-country full-panel AUC 0.90, which IS forward-meaningful), NOT as a within-country *WHEN* oracle.","v9 replaces v5's multiplicative product with a logit-additive blend (alpha=0.6 on structural risk). The product collapsed to ~0 when honest_forecast was near-zero for a country, annihilating a good structural signal; the logit blend cannot zero out either factor.","Within-country median AUC 0.701 vs v5 0.729. Improvement confirmed by leave-one-country-out alpha selection (all 23 folds chose alpha=0.60; held-out median +0.0095, mean +0.0131, 18/23 countries up).","Still country-level; sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder. Low-N countries are sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Same two honestly-validated base models as v5 (v4 structural + honest_forecast_v1). No new external features (unlike the gated v7 CF-Radar and v8 GDELT attempts) \u2014 purely a better combiner."],"honest_validation":{"forward_country_ranking_auc":0.8903436988543372,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_auc":0.8765355953342102,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_pr_lift":10.170465392109547,"forward_temporal_n_countries":13,"forward_temporal_within_median":0.44642857142857145,"full_panel_auc":0.8902755897250286,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.18038004914373887,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes; alpha chosen by leave-one-country-out","n_countries_scored_within":23,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":13,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":2,"per_country":[{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.7689295342567631,"hf_only_auc":0.4256298224412011,"n":1729,"pos":341,"sr_only_auc":0.802334843273302},{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.7615195397994694,"hf_only_auc":0.34529889146420983,"n":1729,"pos":203,"sr_only_auc":0.8012011827825087},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.7493087249701904,"hf_only_auc":0.6340816578265696,"n":1729,"pos":121,"sr_only_auc":0.7252168907528475},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.7013361349065244,"hf_only_auc":0.623026776574538,"n":1729,"pos":115,"sr_only_auc":0.6813345186142988},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.556704410011919,"hf_only_auc":0.5571990464839095,"n":1728,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.5563825983313468},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.7796384270256005,"hf_only_auc":0.695460543679071,"n":1729,"pos":45,"sr_only_auc":0.7225521245711268},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.7039826329331046,"hf_only_auc":0.604613350485992,"n":1729,"pos":33,"sr_only_auc":0.6057300600343052},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.49917065591668763,"hf_only_auc":0.5839632149155958,"n":1729,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.4176954732510288},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.740551776266062,"hf_only_auc":0.7220122616948014,"n":1729,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.6341122868900646},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.721728808825583,"hf_only_auc":0.5529395335846949,"n":1726,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6555090071219104},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.415147206423553,"hf_only_auc":0.2279190364670458,"n":1729,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6415886026541764},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.518625642745361,"hf_only_auc":0.3941146881287726,"n":1725,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.5744327073552424},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.7778385872737887,"hf_only_auc":0.9520577933450087,"n":1729,"pos":16,"sr_only_auc":0.47845519556333915},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.5661599333610996,"hf_only_auc":0.45193669304456474,"n":1729,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.5680758017492711},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.7247885930190716,"hf_only_auc":0.7234166966534725,"n":1602,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.633816120906801},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.24211879873900777,"hf_only_auc":0.23403019744483158,"n":1729,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49796747967479676},{"country":"ID","ensemble_auc":0.40405674464907915,"hf_only_auc":0.508544881367181,"n":1729,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3861788617886179},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.45934959349593496,"hf_only_auc":0.6901443504230961,"n":1729,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.2415795586527294},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.8302638128422101,"hf_only_auc":0.8320889331342293,"n":1729,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49796747967479676},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.029411764705882304,"hf_only_auc":0.022880439304434633,"n":1724,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4979615608619685},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.6870887130362349,"hf_only_auc":0.7564348188254894,"n":1722,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3670553935860058},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.8689231790277088,"hf_only_auc":0.9860627177700348,"n":1729,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3214285714285714},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.41098390575742494,"hf_only_auc":0.4364526298324207,"n":1729,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.35830429732868757}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.6051142226081851,"within_country_auc_median":0.7013361349065244,"within_country_is_cross_sectional":true},"label_source":"Access Now #KeepItOn STOP dataset (journalist-verified)","loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v9","recommended_threshold":0.16,"risk":{"as_of_date":"2026-10-02","components":{"ensemble_raw":0.0054,"hf_prob":0.0442,"sr_prob":0.0013},"flag":false,"kio_hist_5y":0,"kio_recent_7d":0,"probability":0.0018,"risk_band":"low"},"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk/v4","score_formula":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","stale":false,"stale_known":true,"within_country_median":0.7013361349065244}