{"as_of":"2026-07-07","combiner":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","country":"CN","covered":true,"full_panel_auc":0.8953132888230982,"generated_at":"2026-07-08T06:30:22.636620+00:00","honest_caveats":["FORWARD-VALIDATED (the real product): in a strict past->future temporal holdout the CROSS-COUNTRY ranking holds — full-panel AUC ~0.87, country-ranking AUC ~0.90, 7.8x PR-lift over base rate. The model reliably tells you WHICH countries are heading into danger, forward in time. BUT the within-country median AUC is CROSS-SECTIONAL (full panel, in-sample isotonic) — it measures day-ranking when the model has seen the whole period, NOT forward skill. In a strict past->future temporal holdout, within-country timing AUC is ~0.38 (below chance), for BOTH v5 and v9, driven by non-stationarity (shutdowns cluster in time). USE THIS MODEL FOR *WHICH* COUNTRY IS AT RISK (cross-country full-panel AUC 0.90, which IS forward-meaningful), NOT as a within-country *WHEN* oracle.","v9 replaces v5's multiplicative product with a logit-additive blend (alpha=0.6 on structural risk). The product collapsed to ~0 when honest_forecast was near-zero for a country, annihilating a good structural signal; the logit blend cannot zero out either factor.","Within-country median AUC 0.715 vs v5 0.729. Improvement confirmed by leave-one-country-out alpha selection (all 23 folds chose alpha=0.60; held-out median +0.0095, mean +0.0131, 18/23 countries up).","Still country-level; sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder. Low-N countries are sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Same two honestly-validated base models as v5 (v4 structural + honest_forecast_v1). No new external features (unlike the gated v7 CF-Radar and v8 GDELT attempts) — purely a better combiner."],"honest_validation":{"forward_country_ranking_auc":0.8905608755129959,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_auc":0.8561978585591251,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_pr_lift":7.798744030010747,"forward_temporal_n_countries":17,"forward_temporal_within_median":0.3501472754050074,"full_panel_auc":0.8953132888230982,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.21783610324936326,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes; alpha chosen by leave-one-country-out","n_countries_scored_within":23,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":13,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":2,"per_country":[{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.8025306497821437,"hf_only_auc":0.43995482834093336,"n":1642,"pos":341,"sr_only_auc":0.8286317089718939},{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.8074162065199904,"hf_only_auc":0.34014281948671254,"n":1642,"pos":203,"sr_only_auc":0.8298353057165451},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.7694807135366576,"hf_only_auc":0.6470134372232275,"n":1642,"pos":121,"sr_only_auc":0.7508625795339081},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.7256655562199255,"hf_only_auc":0.6397482987386465,"n":1642,"pos":115,"sr_only_auc":0.7085105777170353},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.5904839723444375,"hf_only_auc":0.5811565053425518,"n":1641,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.5868070395977372},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.7894454880679052,"hf_only_auc":0.6586238085298824,"n":1642,"pos":45,"sr_only_auc":0.7492033674250331},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.7152287323200934,"hf_only_auc":0.6020302465299358,"n":1642,"pos":33,"sr_only_auc":0.6196395276569298},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.5081098424499911,"hf_only_auc":0.6255531952557976,"n":1642,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.43347273853779433},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.7533081076296689,"hf_only_auc":0.7102805806337406,"n":1642,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.6615551425030979},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.753840720466184,"hf_only_auc":0.5514744834893165,"n":1639,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6869150626876214},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.47508886342939394,"hf_only_auc":0.34373255779794953,"n":1642,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6760230310507916},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.5755956062078511,"hf_only_auc":0.4579909886032335,"n":1638,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6053391053391053},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.7912630688806888,"hf_only_auc":0.943880688806888,"n":1642,"pos":16,"sr_only_auc":0.5007111008610086},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.5505001755001755,"hf_only_auc":0.40711653211653215,"n":1642,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.58507371007371},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.7780051394308556,"hf_only_auc":0.7596364328542876,"n":1515,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.6560626249167223},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.27728265618173875,"hf_only_auc":0.25923984272608125,"n":1642,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4978593272171254},{"country":"ID","ensemble_auc":0.4788990825688073,"hf_only_auc":0.4983835736129314,"n":1642,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.40672782874617736},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.48012232415902145,"hf_only_auc":0.6999563128003495,"n":1642,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.25443425076452597},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.7422892092616864,"hf_only_auc":0.7477501092179991,"n":1642,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4978593272171254},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.04294478527607365,"hf_only_auc":0.03347940403155129,"n":1637,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49785276073619633},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.6705861705861706,"hf_only_auc":0.7171814671814672,"n":1635,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.38667076167076164},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.739755351681957,"hf_only_auc":0.9716033202271734,"n":1642,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3385321100917431},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.32411533420707733,"hf_only_auc":0.3965923984272608,"n":1642,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.37737003058103974}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.6148677285525432,"within_country_auc_median":0.7152287323200934,"within_country_is_cross_sectional":true},"label_source":"Access Now #KeepItOn STOP dataset (journalist-verified)","loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v9","recommended_threshold":0.1,"risk":{"as_of_date":"2026-07-07","components":{"ensemble_raw":0.0245,"hf_prob":0.0889,"sr_prob":0.0101},"flag":false,"kio_hist_5y":1,"kio_recent_7d":0,"probability":0.0034,"risk_band":"low"},"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk/v4","score_formula":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","within_country_median":0.7152287323200934,"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}