{"as_of":"2026-08-14","combiner":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","country":"IQ","covered":true,"data_age_days":2,"full_panel_auc":0.8945124827170957,"generated_at":"2026-08-15T06:30:21.315951+00:00","honest_caveats":["FORWARD-VALIDATED (the real product): in a strict past->future temporal holdout the CROSS-COUNTRY ranking holds — full-panel AUC ~0.87, country-ranking AUC ~0.90, 7.8x PR-lift over base rate. The model reliably tells you WHICH countries are heading into danger, forward in time. BUT the within-country median AUC is CROSS-SECTIONAL (full panel, in-sample isotonic) — it measures day-ranking when the model has seen the whole period, NOT forward skill. In a strict past->future temporal holdout, within-country timing AUC is ~0.38 (below chance), for BOTH v5 and v9, driven by non-stationarity (shutdowns cluster in time). USE THIS MODEL FOR *WHICH* COUNTRY IS AT RISK (cross-country full-panel AUC 0.90, which IS forward-meaningful), NOT as a within-country *WHEN* oracle.","v9 replaces v5's multiplicative product with a logit-additive blend (alpha=0.6 on structural risk). The product collapsed to ~0 when honest_forecast was near-zero for a country, annihilating a good structural signal; the logit blend cannot zero out either factor.","Within-country median AUC 0.708 vs v5 0.729. Improvement confirmed by leave-one-country-out alpha selection (all 23 folds chose alpha=0.60; held-out median +0.0095, mean +0.0131, 18/23 countries up).","Still country-level; sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder. Low-N countries are sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Same two honestly-validated base models as v5 (v4 structural + honest_forecast_v1). No new external features (unlike the gated v7 CF-Radar and v8 GDELT attempts) — purely a better combiner."],"honest_validation":{"forward_country_ranking_auc":0.9318181818181819,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_auc":0.8540300755389117,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_pr_lift":8.321987546782598,"forward_temporal_n_countries":14,"forward_temporal_within_median":0.38114411284930017,"full_panel_auc":0.8945124827170957,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.208363887857762,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes; alpha chosen by leave-one-country-out","n_countries_scored_within":22,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":13,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":1,"per_country":[{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.7969673608571197,"hf_only_auc":0.4485139038850282,"n":1680,"pos":341,"sr_only_auc":0.8167253979969296},{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.7893196500695392,"hf_only_auc":0.37100066370722173,"n":1680,"pos":203,"sr_only_auc":0.8169135279540808},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.7629996978355484,"hf_only_auc":0.6315475590943548,"n":1680,"pos":121,"sr_only_auc":0.7393089445978828},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.7100375052090568,"hf_only_auc":0.6330434782608696,"n":1680,"pos":115,"sr_only_auc":0.6962689262397556},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.5621853898096991,"hf_only_auc":0.5488275015346837,"n":1679,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.5731184775936158},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.7770914033299354,"hf_only_auc":0.6689636425416242,"n":1680,"pos":45,"sr_only_auc":0.737213727488957},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.7056539898069953,"hf_only_auc":0.588802413939026,"n":1680,"pos":33,"sr_only_auc":0.6133833784107008},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.5246562608094085,"hf_only_auc":0.6392684192320996,"n":1680,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.4263771186440678},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.7669275337253545,"hf_only_auc":0.7557289865098582,"n":1680,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.6492130750605326},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.7418622038187255,"hf_only_auc":0.517914653784219,"n":1677,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.672791580400276},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.4807256235827664,"hf_only_auc":0.3199862223370361,"n":1680,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6605384769941731},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.5399654725938714,"hf_only_auc":0.4395051071788232,"n":1676,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.5914400805639476},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.7914287860576923,"hf_only_auc":0.9571814903846153,"n":1680,"pos":16,"sr_only_auc":0.4907038762019231},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.581504030183502,"hf_only_auc":0.44593551706396845,"n":1680,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.5774309723889556},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.7687505801540889,"hf_only_auc":0.746588693957115,"n":1553,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.6460363872644576},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.2150969174280591,"hf_only_auc":0.21484074801468703,"n":1680,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.497907949790795},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.47519426180514046,"hf_only_auc":0.693877551020408,"n":1680,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.24865511057979678},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.8010844505166084,"hf_only_auc":0.8044573477926735,"n":1680,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.497907949790795},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.05365707434052758,"hf_only_auc":0.03785542994176088,"n":1675,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49790167865707435},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.6714542960041159,"hf_only_auc":0.7937317784256559,"n":1673,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.37785114045618245},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.7713687985654513,"hf_only_auc":0.9760054649474853,"n":1680,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.330842797369994},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.3125693792161216,"hf_only_auc":0.40893177354623855,"n":1680,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3687985654512851}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.6182045757145148,"within_country_auc_median":0.7078457475080261,"within_country_is_cross_sectional":true},"label_source":"Access Now #KeepItOn STOP dataset (journalist-verified)","loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v9","recommended_threshold":0.16,"risk":{"as_of_date":"2026-08-14","components":{"ensemble_raw":0.1628,"hf_prob":0.5547,"sr_prob":0.0534},"flag":false,"kio_hist_5y":7,"kio_recent_7d":0,"probability":0.0551,"risk_band":"low"},"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk/v4","score_formula":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","stale":false,"stale_known":true,"within_country_median":0.7078457475080261,"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}