{"as_of":"2026-07-08","combiner":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","country":"IQ","covered":true,"full_panel_auc":0.8952507424856062,"generated_at":"2026-07-09T06:30:19.692088+00:00","honest_caveats":["FORWARD-VALIDATED (the real product): in a strict past->future temporal holdout the CROSS-COUNTRY ranking holds — full-panel AUC ~0.87, country-ranking AUC ~0.90, 7.8x PR-lift over base rate. The model reliably tells you WHICH countries are heading into danger, forward in time. BUT the within-country median AUC is CROSS-SECTIONAL (full panel, in-sample isotonic) — it measures day-ranking when the model has seen the whole period, NOT forward skill. In a strict past->future temporal holdout, within-country timing AUC is ~0.38 (below chance), for BOTH v5 and v9, driven by non-stationarity (shutdowns cluster in time). USE THIS MODEL FOR *WHICH* COUNTRY IS AT RISK (cross-country full-panel AUC 0.90, which IS forward-meaningful), NOT as a within-country *WHEN* oracle.","v9 replaces v5's multiplicative product with a logit-additive blend (alpha=0.6 on structural risk). The product collapsed to ~0 when honest_forecast was near-zero for a country, annihilating a good structural signal; the logit blend cannot zero out either factor.","Within-country median AUC 0.715 vs v5 0.729. Improvement confirmed by leave-one-country-out alpha selection (all 23 folds chose alpha=0.60; held-out median +0.0095, mean +0.0131, 18/23 countries up).","Still country-level; sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder. Low-N countries are sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Same two honestly-validated base models as v5 (v4 structural + honest_forecast_v1). No new external features (unlike the gated v7 CF-Radar and v8 GDELT attempts) — purely a better combiner."],"honest_validation":{"forward_country_ranking_auc":0.8905608755129959,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_auc":0.8561300194627979,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_pr_lift":7.786839540782005,"forward_temporal_n_countries":17,"forward_temporal_within_median":0.3497368098910516,"full_panel_auc":0.8952507424856062,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.21721401325182876,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes; alpha chosen by leave-one-country-out","n_countries_scored_within":23,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":13,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":2,"per_country":[{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.8021518890405467,"hf_only_auc":0.4400561284016019,"n":1643,"pos":341,"sr_only_auc":0.828309481014996},{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.8067015599343186,"hf_only_auc":0.33983819102353585,"n":1643,"pos":203,"sr_only_auc":0.8294865216201421},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.769648461680477,"hf_only_auc":0.6467946699101879,"n":1643,"pos":121,"sr_only_auc":0.7505511451873893},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.7250739813339404,"hf_only_auc":0.6395572501707262,"n":1643,"pos":115,"sr_only_auc":0.7081806282722514},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.5901821608040201,"hf_only_auc":0.5813190954773869,"n":1642,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.5864384422110552},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.7888263106661104,"hf_only_auc":0.6587679043248504,"n":1643,"pos":45,"sr_only_auc":0.7488805451258518},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.7148033126293996,"hf_only_auc":0.6022774327122152,"n":1643,"pos":33,"sr_only_auc":0.6194711086015434},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.5091662980981866,"hf_only_auc":0.6257408226448474,"n":1643,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.43328173374613005},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.7533613445378151,"hf_only_auc":0.7104599734630694,"n":1643,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.6612229102167183},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.7535515750463249,"hf_only_auc":0.5515456336951087,"n":1640,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6865348980852378},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.47479596030767424,"hf_only_auc":0.34352063883506545,"n":1643,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6756062474311549},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.5751662840661604,"hf_only_auc":0.457707928659721,"n":1639,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6049649773382777},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.7908919791026429,"hf_only_auc":0.9435694529809465,"n":1643,"pos":16,"sr_only_auc":0.5004417639827904},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.5494606682451987,"hf_only_auc":0.4068666140489345,"n":1643,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.5848680171884593},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.7778200494578656,"hf_only_auc":0.7597489062202777,"n":1516,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.655792276964048},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.2772441494935382,"hf_only_auc":0.25925602514844565,"n":1643,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49786063569682154},{"country":"ID","ensemble_auc":0.47891198044009775,"hf_only_auc":0.498690185120503,"n":1643,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.406479217603912},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.4798288508557457,"hf_only_auc":0.6995284666433811,"n":1643,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.254278728606357},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.7429706601466992,"hf_only_auc":0.7479042961928047,"n":1643,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49786063569682154},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.04294478527607365,"hf_only_auc":0.03347940403155129,"n":1637,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49785276073619633},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.67008681925809,"hf_only_auc":0.7169166008945015,"n":1636,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.38643339472068755},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.7393031784841076,"hf_only_auc":0.9716206776108977,"n":1643,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3383251833740831},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.32400454069158224,"hf_only_auc":0.3969612294795669,"n":1643,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3771393643031785}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.6146476869389833,"within_country_auc_median":0.7148033126293996,"within_country_is_cross_sectional":true},"label_source":"Access Now #KeepItOn STOP dataset (journalist-verified)","loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v9","recommended_threshold":0.1,"risk":{"as_of_date":"2026-07-08","components":{"ensemble_raw":0.204,"hf_prob":0.7013,"sr_prob":0.0553},"flag":false,"kio_hist_5y":7,"kio_recent_7d":0,"probability":0.0599,"risk_band":"low"},"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk/v4","score_formula":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","within_country_median":0.7148033126293996,"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. 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