{"as_of":"2026-08-22","combiner":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","country":"IR","covered":true,"data_age_days":1,"full_panel_auc":0.8926208396597063,"generated_at":"2026-08-23T06:30:20.352944+00:00","honest_caveats":["FORWARD-VALIDATED (the real product): in a strict past->future temporal holdout the CROSS-COUNTRY ranking holds — full-panel AUC ~0.87, country-ranking AUC ~0.90, 7.8x PR-lift over base rate. The model reliably tells you WHICH countries are heading into danger, forward in time. BUT the within-country median AUC is CROSS-SECTIONAL (full panel, in-sample isotonic) — it measures day-ranking when the model has seen the whole period, NOT forward skill. In a strict past->future temporal holdout, within-country timing AUC is ~0.38 (below chance), for BOTH v5 and v9, driven by non-stationarity (shutdowns cluster in time). USE THIS MODEL FOR *WHICH* COUNTRY IS AT RISK (cross-country full-panel AUC 0.90, which IS forward-meaningful), NOT as a within-country *WHEN* oracle.","v9 replaces v5's multiplicative product with a logit-additive blend (alpha=0.6 on structural risk). The product collapsed to ~0 when honest_forecast was near-zero for a country, annihilating a good structural signal; the logit blend cannot zero out either factor.","Within-country median AUC 0.701 vs v5 0.729. Improvement confirmed by leave-one-country-out alpha selection (all 23 folds chose alpha=0.60; held-out median +0.0095, mean +0.0131, 18/23 countries up).","Still country-level; sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder. Low-N countries are sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Same two honestly-validated base models as v5 (v4 structural + honest_forecast_v1). No new external features (unlike the gated v7 CF-Radar and v8 GDELT attempts) — purely a better combiner."],"honest_validation":{"forward_country_ranking_auc":0.9007407407407407,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_auc":0.8543848982251563,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_pr_lift":7.92835742890406,"forward_temporal_n_countries":15,"forward_temporal_within_median":0.32754342431761785,"full_panel_auc":0.8926208396597063,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.18384327284329377,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes; alpha chosen by leave-one-country-out","n_countries_scored_within":23,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":13,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":1,"per_country":[{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.7726946162537799,"hf_only_auc":0.40161148811195513,"n":1688,"pos":341,"sr_only_auc":0.8143044062291136},{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.7745567331774228,"hf_only_auc":0.31125043538836644,"n":1688,"pos":203,"sr_only_auc":0.8142774211739728},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.7664564072001561,"hf_only_auc":0.6449234469191538,"n":1688,"pos":121,"sr_only_auc":0.7369480029745737},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.7113408330799635,"hf_only_auc":0.5989164985212416,"n":1688,"pos":115,"sr_only_auc":0.6937671024627546},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.5670372632864997,"hf_only_auc":0.5584850335980451,"n":1687,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.5703176542455711},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.7819977006830324,"hf_only_auc":0.6948130114289579,"n":1688,"pos":45,"sr_only_auc":0.7347602623926424},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.7012176142085508,"hf_only_auc":0.5769477249839787,"n":1688,"pos":33,"sr_only_auc":0.6121029021331136},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.47541953528399317,"hf_only_auc":0.5897805507745266,"n":1688,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.42492469879518074},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.7503442340791739,"hf_only_auc":0.7353055077452668,"n":1688,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.6466867469879518},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.7127117673992674,"hf_only_auc":0.5098157051282052,"n":1685,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6699004120879121},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.4594880594880595,"hf_only_auc":0.31492921492921494,"n":1686,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6581581581581581},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.548678521318329,"hf_only_auc":0.4340119691893594,"n":1684,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.5885949087993585},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.7988374700956937,"hf_only_auc":0.9651614832535885,"n":1688,"pos":16,"sr_only_auc":0.48865505382775126},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.6020865335381466,"hf_only_auc":0.4944956477214542,"n":1688,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.5758661887694145},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.8046911072121157,"hf_only_auc":0.8275464031766553,"n":1561,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.6439883645765999},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.2509560635676043,"hf_only_auc":0.23888841675873204,"n":1688,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49791790600832836},{"country":"ID","ensemble_auc":0.29060083283759663,"hf_only_auc":0.5200985807767485,"n":1688,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3955978584176086},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.4866151100535396,"hf_only_auc":0.6983088297781933,"n":1688,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.24747174301011304},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.7614090252400783,"hf_only_auc":0.7495538370017847,"n":1688,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49791790600832836},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.041169451073985674,"hf_only_auc":0.03179338561200135,"n":1683,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49791169451073986},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.6629970984809694,"hf_only_auc":0.7630141662399728,"n":1681,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3760454002389486},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.7596668649613325,"hf_only_auc":0.975269822384635,"n":1688,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3292682926829268},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.33016061867935753,"hf_only_auc":0.404436134953684,"n":1688,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3670434265318263}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.600484063530376,"within_country_auc_median":0.7012176142085508,"within_country_is_cross_sectional":true},"label_source":"Access Now #KeepItOn STOP dataset (journalist-verified)","loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v9","recommended_threshold":0.16,"risk":{"as_of_date":"2026-08-22","components":{"ensemble_raw":0.1316,"hf_prob":0.4032,"sr_prob":0.053},"flag":false,"kio_hist_5y":7,"kio_recent_7d":0,"probability":0.0471,"risk_band":"low"},"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk/v4","score_formula":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","stale":false,"stale_known":true,"within_country_median":0.7012176142085508,"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS 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