{"country":"SY","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-05-24T06:30:09.882279+00:00","honest_caveats":["Ensemble of two honestly-validated models. shutdown_risk_v4 provides country structural risk (the cross-country signal); honest_forecast_v1 provides OONI z-score trajectory (the within-country timing signal). The product captures WHICH and WHEN.","Within-country median AUC 0.73. The model differentiates shutdown-precursor days from other days within the major shutdown-prone countries (MM, IN, RU, PK, IQ all >=0.70). For low-N countries the within-country signal is weaker — sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Country structural risk dominates the cross-country signal; OONI measurement trajectory adds the within-country timing.","City-level / sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder to predict from country-level aggregates.","v1/v2/v3 lost the signal by over-fitting; v4 captured country-identity; v5 is the minimum ensemble that adds within-country timing on top of v4."],"honest_validation":{"full_panel_auc":0.8849556043307079,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.23459265682207708,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes","n_countries_scored_within":23,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":13,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":1,"per_country":[{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.8327710275136821,"hf_only_auc":0.41378392513588735,"n":1597,"pos":341,"sr_only_auc":0.8436630274389674},{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.7418846428394739,"hf_only_auc":0.31775519290979637,"n":1597,"pos":203,"sr_only_auc":0.8460485119194859},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.7644656095321284,"hf_only_auc":0.6208369728325382,"n":1597,"pos":121,"sr_only_auc":0.7653138928083496},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.7303262336443114,"hf_only_auc":0.6163879598662206,"n":1597,"pos":115,"sr_only_auc":0.7238191632928476},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.5840685640362224,"hf_only_auc":0.5869857697283312,"n":1596,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.6038874514877102},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.7726016609392898,"hf_only_auc":0.67737686139748,"n":1597,"pos":45,"sr_only_auc":0.7641609392898052},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.7294137022397893,"hf_only_auc":0.5924978687127025,"n":1597,"pos":33,"sr_only_auc":0.6274412927226227},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.4612696895201675,"hf_only_auc":0.5566785031412183,"n":1597,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.4423199490121097},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.7537558044250205,"hf_only_auc":0.6969634890284986,"n":1597,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.6769439133205863},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.7494021130384766,"hf_only_auc":0.549299185662822,"n":1594,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.7045227499772955},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.4661526832955404,"hf_only_auc":0.3542403628117914,"n":1596,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6957671957671957},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.6059917605719133,"hf_only_auc":0.48061311038410276,"n":1593,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6226675148430874},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.7620967741935484,"hf_only_auc":0.9483712839974698,"n":1597,"pos":16,"sr_only_auc":0.5131839025932955},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.6116550852811119,"hf_only_auc":0.5568540745420089,"n":1597,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.594598862918509},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.748798076923077,"hf_only_auc":0.7694270015698588,"n":1470,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.6686126373626373},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.3147349505840072,"hf_only_auc":0.24887690925426773,"n":1597,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4977987421383648},{"country":"ID","ensemble_auc":0.30920934411500445,"hf_only_auc":0.3952380952380953,"n":1597,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.41823899371069184},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.4849056603773585,"hf_only_auc":0.6991913746630728,"n":1597,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.26163522012578616},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.7601976639712489,"hf_only_auc":0.7504941599281222,"n":1597,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4977987421383648},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.04006309148264986,"hf_only_auc":0.029382604776926557,"n":1592,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49779179810725555},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.698989260897031,"hf_only_auc":0.8151340131757061,"n":1590,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3976626658243841},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.7364779874213836,"hf_only_auc":0.9541778975741241,"n":1597,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3481132075471698},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.5428122192273136,"hf_only_auc":0.4283917340521114,"n":1597,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.38805031446540883}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.6174801567856413,"within_country_auc_median":0.7294137022397893},"label_source":"Access Now #KeepItOn STOP dataset (journalist-verified)","loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v5","recommended_threshold":0.18,"risk":{"as_of_date":"2026-05-16","components":{"ensemble_raw":0.0094,"hf_prob":0.4787,"sr_prob":0.0196},"flag":false,"kio_hist_5y":3,"kio_recent_7d":0,"probability":0.0288,"risk_band":"low"},"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk/v4","score_formula":"isotonic(shutdown_risk_v4_prob * honest_forecast_v1_prob)","_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}