{"as_of":"2025-09-26","combiner":"isotonic(shutdown_risk_v4_prob * honest_forecast_v1_prob)","country":"TM","covered":true,"data_age_days":331,"full_panel_auc":0.8831280962824439,"generated_at":"2026-08-22T06:30:10.620814+00:00","honest_caveats":["Ensemble of two honestly-validated models. shutdown_risk_v4 provides country structural risk (the cross-country signal); honest_forecast_v1 provides OONI z-score trajectory (the within-country timing signal). The product captures WHICH and WHEN.","Within-country median AUC 0.71. The model differentiates shutdown-precursor days from other days within the major shutdown-prone countries (MM, IN, RU, PK, IQ all >=0.70). For low-N countries the within-country signal is weaker — sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Country structural risk dominates the cross-country signal; OONI measurement trajectory adds the within-country timing.","City-level / sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder to predict from country-level aggregates.","v1/v2/v3 lost the signal by over-fitting; v4 captured country-identity; v5 is the minimum ensemble that adds within-country timing on top of v4."],"honest_validation":{"full_panel_auc":0.8831280962824439,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.19853487216375837,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes","n_countries_scored_within":23,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":13,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":2,"per_country":[{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.7902517723852145,"hf_only_auc":0.42590623679153616,"n":1687,"pos":341,"sr_only_auc":0.8146054563755757},{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.7515983296376456,"hf_only_auc":0.40931014565878404,"n":1687,"pos":203,"sr_only_auc":0.8146053802132434},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.7674841413085927,"hf_only_auc":0.6540588750620099,"n":1687,"pos":121,"sr_only_auc":0.7372418015051243},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.710377254121031,"hf_only_auc":0.6147859276468637,"n":1687,"pos":115,"sr_only_auc":0.6940784378802964},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.5535757946210269,"hf_only_auc":0.5528545232273839,"n":1686,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.5706662591687041},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.7721680876979293,"hf_only_auc":0.6833130328867235,"n":1687,"pos":45,"sr_only_auc":0.7350656381107051},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.721474112344729,"hf_only_auc":0.6157524458612729,"n":1687,"pos":33,"sr_only_auc":0.6122622842695393},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.4977396021699819,"hf_only_auc":0.6377981572375786,"n":1687,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.4251054852320675},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.7756286058727289,"hf_only_auc":0.7842934642211314,"n":1687,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.6470012055455093},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.7447241073218223,"hf_only_auc":0.5875783867365346,"n":1684,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6702602869169315},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.40235950235950235,"hf_only_auc":0.3212069212069212,"n":1686,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6581581581581581},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.5489943269726663,"hf_only_auc":0.44561916222566045,"n":1683,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.5889490573606097},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.7606410831837224,"hf_only_auc":0.9502543387193297,"n":1687,"pos":16,"sr_only_auc":0.48891008378216627},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.5822090342413117,"hf_only_auc":0.486380326189053,"n":1687,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.5760609683203826},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.7482443171317685,"hf_only_auc":0.7867769358713731,"n":1560,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.6442432082794308},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.27368197278911566,"hf_only_auc":0.24744897959183673,"n":1687,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4979166666666667},{"country":"ID","ensemble_auc":0.4717687074829932,"hf_only_auc":0.561139455782313,"n":1687,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3958333333333333},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.46517857142857144,"hf_only_auc":0.7311224489795918,"n":1687,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.24761904761904763},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.800297619047619,"hf_only_auc":0.8138605442176869,"n":1687,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4979166666666667},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.032537313432835835,"hf_only_auc":0.027633262260127953,"n":1682,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49791044776119403},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.6902911792331996,"hf_only_auc":0.7833660660917087,"n":1680,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3762701733413031},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.9419642857142857,"hf_only_auc":0.9748299319727892,"n":1687,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3294642857142857},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.32057823129251706,"hf_only_auc":0.39005102040816325,"n":1687,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3672619047619048}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.6140768674691658,"within_country_auc_median":0.710377254121031},"label_source":"Access Now #KeepItOn STOP dataset (journalist-verified)","loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v5","recommended_threshold":0.15555555555555556,"risk":{"as_of_date":"2025-09-26","components":{"ensemble_raw":0.0041,"hf_prob":0.4152,"sr_prob":0.0098},"flag":false,"kio_hist_5y":1,"kio_recent_7d":0,"probability":0.0184,"risk_band":"low"},"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk/v4","score_formula":"isotonic(shutdown_risk_v4_prob * honest_forecast_v1_prob)","stale":true,"stale_known":true,"within_country_median":0.710377254121031,"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query 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