{"as_of":"2026-09-18","combiner":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","country":"TM","covered":true,"data_age_days":19,"full_panel_auc":0.89130291141697,"generated_at":"2026-10-07T06:31:05.070643+00:00","honest_caveats":["FORWARD-VALIDATED (the real product): in a strict past->future temporal holdout the CROSS-COUNTRY ranking holds \u2014 full-panel AUC ~0.87, country-ranking AUC ~0.90, 7.8x PR-lift over base rate. The model reliably tells you WHICH countries are heading into danger, forward in time. BUT the within-country median AUC is CROSS-SECTIONAL (full panel, in-sample isotonic) \u2014 it measures day-ranking when the model has seen the whole period, NOT forward skill. In a strict past->future temporal holdout, within-country timing AUC is ~0.38 (below chance), for BOTH v5 and v9, driven by non-stationarity (shutdowns cluster in time). USE THIS MODEL FOR *WHICH* COUNTRY IS AT RISK (cross-country full-panel AUC 0.90, which IS forward-meaningful), NOT as a within-country *WHEN* oracle.","v9 replaces v5's multiplicative product with a logit-additive blend (alpha=0.6 on structural risk). The product collapsed to ~0 when honest_forecast was near-zero for a country, annihilating a good structural signal; the logit blend cannot zero out either factor.","Within-country median AUC 0.715 vs v5 0.729. Improvement confirmed by leave-one-country-out alpha selection (all 23 folds chose alpha=0.60; held-out median +0.0095, mean +0.0131, 18/23 countries up).","Still country-level; sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder. Low-N countries are sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Same two honestly-validated base models as v5 (v4 structural + honest_forecast_v1). No new external features (unlike the gated v7 CF-Radar and v8 GDELT attempts) \u2014 purely a better combiner."],"honest_validation":{"forward_country_ranking_auc":0.9050736497545009,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_auc":0.8836928281160943,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_pr_lift":9.786811339175005,"forward_temporal_n_countries":13,"forward_temporal_within_median":0.42732793522267204,"full_panel_auc":0.89130291141697,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.17908153987990993,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes; alpha chosen by leave-one-country-out","n_countries_scored_within":23,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":13,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":1,"per_country":[{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.7593705661236562,"hf_only_auc":0.4207884367667304,"n":1732,"pos":341,"sr_only_auc":0.8014867255144613},{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.7578442396105507,"hf_only_auc":0.3584492907241605,"n":1732,"pos":203,"sr_only_auc":0.8002719186048384},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.7469360953362985,"hf_only_auc":0.6417347676870278,"n":1732,"pos":121,"sr_only_auc":0.7243819607963844},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.6927025355596784,"hf_only_auc":0.6034148046570407,"n":1732,"pos":115,"sr_only_auc":0.680449571132801},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.5490184414039262,"hf_only_auc":0.5624509220701962,"n":1731,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.5553896490184413},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.7749061450306263,"hf_only_auc":0.7102680629651584,"n":1732,"pos":45,"sr_only_auc":0.7216821445037214},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.7254267216009418,"hf_only_auc":0.6308256193482797,"n":1732,"pos":33,"sr_only_auc":0.6052758307025523},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.49726483903420526,"hf_only_auc":0.5691021126760563,"n":1732,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.41718016431924887},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.7426852783366868,"hf_only_auc":0.7484280684104628,"n":1732,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.6332159624413146},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.7750362440057991,"hf_only_auc":0.5671908107505297,"n":1729,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6544831047172968},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.45327154824524785,"hf_only_auc":0.3132253485847875,"n":1732,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6404636664718487},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.5305046447401456,"hf_only_auc":0.4121962786286161,"n":1728,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.5734231595391526},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.7810496794871795,"hf_only_auc":0.9289772727272727,"n":1732,"pos":16,"sr_only_auc":0.4777280011655012},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.58200981207384,"hf_only_auc":0.45164643272908694,"n":1732,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.5675203725261933},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.7821899973062764,"hf_only_auc":0.750067343090599,"n":1605,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.6330923947203017},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.2605383022774327,"hf_only_auc":0.2568944099378882,"n":1732,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4979710144927536},{"country":"ID","ensemble_auc":0.43623188405797103,"hf_only_auc":0.5363975155279502,"n":1732,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3855072463768116},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.4773913043478261,"hf_only_auc":0.650600414078675,"n":1732,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.2411594202898551},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.7963975155279504,"hf_only_auc":0.8422360248447206,"n":1732,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4979710144927536},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.03430232558139534,"hf_only_auc":0.028239202657807327,"n":1727,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49796511627906975},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.7150340927989356,"hf_only_auc":0.8411774488608017,"n":1725,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.36641443538998836},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.8305175983436853,"hf_only_auc":0.9707660455486543,"n":1732,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3208695652173913},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.36828157349896484,"hf_only_auc":0.46997929606625255,"n":1732,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3576811594202899}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.6116917993186618,"within_country_auc_median":0.7150340927989356,"within_country_is_cross_sectional":true},"label_source":"Access Now #KeepItOn STOP dataset (journalist-verified)","loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v9","recommended_threshold":0.12,"risk":{"as_of_date":"2026-09-18","components":{"ensemble_raw":0.002,"hf_prob":0.0002,"sr_prob":0.0095},"flag":false,"kio_hist_5y":1,"kio_recent_7d":0,"probability":0.0013,"risk_band":"low"},"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk/v4","score_formula":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","stale":true,"stale_known":true,"within_country_median":0.7150340927989356}