{"as_of":"2026-08-12","combiner":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","country":"TZ","covered":true,"data_age_days":1,"full_panel_auc":0.8932664151500498,"generated_at":"2026-08-13T06:30:21.222305+00:00","honest_caveats":["FORWARD-VALIDATED (the real product): in a strict past->future temporal holdout the CROSS-COUNTRY ranking holds — full-panel AUC ~0.87, country-ranking AUC ~0.90, 7.8x PR-lift over base rate. The model reliably tells you WHICH countries are heading into danger, forward in time. BUT the within-country median AUC is CROSS-SECTIONAL (full panel, in-sample isotonic) — it measures day-ranking when the model has seen the whole period, NOT forward skill. In a strict past->future temporal holdout, within-country timing AUC is ~0.38 (below chance), for BOTH v5 and v9, driven by non-stationarity (shutdowns cluster in time). USE THIS MODEL FOR *WHICH* COUNTRY IS AT RISK (cross-country full-panel AUC 0.90, which IS forward-meaningful), NOT as a within-country *WHEN* oracle.","v9 replaces v5's multiplicative product with a logit-additive blend (alpha=0.6 on structural risk). The product collapsed to ~0 when honest_forecast was near-zero for a country, annihilating a good structural signal; the logit blend cannot zero out either factor.","Within-country median AUC 0.704 vs v5 0.729. Improvement confirmed by leave-one-country-out alpha selection (all 23 folds chose alpha=0.60; held-out median +0.0095, mean +0.0131, 18/23 countries up).","Still country-level; sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder. Low-N countries are sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Same two honestly-validated base models as v5 (v4 structural + honest_forecast_v1). No new external features (unlike the gated v7 CF-Radar and v8 GDELT attempts) — purely a better combiner."],"honest_validation":{"forward_country_ranking_auc":0.8962962962962964,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_auc":0.850458089958762,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_pr_lift":8.31496354446266,"forward_temporal_n_countries":15,"forward_temporal_within_median":0.3298597953770368,"full_panel_auc":0.8932664151500498,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.20710464685699556,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes; alpha chosen by leave-one-country-out","n_countries_scored_within":23,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":13,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":1,"per_country":[{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.7977581445745608,"hf_only_auc":0.44891723712868786,"n":1678,"pos":341,"sr_only_auc":0.817335172849444},{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.7947081906988395,"hf_only_auc":0.37094931952909743,"n":1678,"pos":203,"sr_only_auc":0.8175770226267011},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.7621273162523818,"hf_only_auc":0.631206972510178,"n":1678,"pos":121,"sr_only_auc":0.7399029708541005},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.7113688836963475,"hf_only_auc":0.6329911819522102,"n":1678,"pos":115,"sr_only_auc":0.696898383821525},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.5592747387830362,"hf_only_auc":0.5489489858635526,"n":1677,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.5738229870928088},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.7654623392529089,"hf_only_auc":0.6685309927196027,"n":1678,"pos":45,"sr_only_auc":0.7378308498332994},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.704163212673851,"hf_only_auc":0.5885419544994013,"n":1678,"pos":33,"sr_only_auc":0.6137054434926775},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.5201298701298701,"hf_only_auc":0.6397186147186147,"n":1678,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.42674242424242426},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.7677597402597403,"hf_only_auc":0.7554112554112554,"n":1678,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.6498484848484849},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.7487332296884898,"hf_only_auc":0.5177347843611447,"n":1675,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6735187424425634},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.4803600184034966,"hf_only_auc":0.32056590752242925,"n":1677,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6617351046698872},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.5381413303373376,"hf_only_auc":0.440094489096304,"n":1674,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.592155676547691},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.7930768652226234,"hf_only_auc":0.957129963898917,"n":1678,"pos":16,"sr_only_auc":0.49121916365824303},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.5878262362637363,"hf_only_auc":0.4459563873626373,"n":1678,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.5778245192307692},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.7725392694488336,"hf_only_auc":0.7476066548935775,"n":1551,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.646551724137931},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.2092416859023681,"hf_only_auc":0.21449944430195778,"n":1678,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49790544584081387},{"country":"ID","ensemble_auc":0.2471573907839617,"hf_only_auc":0.3950585620244507,"n":1678,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3979652902453621},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.4784560143626571,"hf_only_auc":0.6935111567068479,"n":1678,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.24895272292040693},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.8121740617252287,"hf_only_auc":0.8042233051209712,"n":1678,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49790544584081387},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.056122448979591844,"hf_only_auc":0.03790087463556851,"n":1673,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49789915966386555},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.6753519917582418,"hf_only_auc":0.7938272664835164,"n":1671,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.37830528846153844},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.770197486535009,"hf_only_auc":0.9759767461742327,"n":1678,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.33123877917414724},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.317902026160554,"hf_only_auc":0.40839531503804394,"n":1678,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3692399760622382}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.6030448909518986,"within_country_auc_median":0.704163212673851,"within_country_is_cross_sectional":true},"label_source":"Access Now #KeepItOn STOP dataset (journalist-verified)","loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v9","recommended_threshold":0.16,"risk":{"as_of_date":"2026-08-12","components":{"ensemble_raw":0.2043,"hf_prob":0.6601,"sr_prob":0.0625},"flag":false,"kio_hist_5y":8,"kio_recent_7d":0,"probability":0.0557,"risk_band":"low"},"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk/v4","score_formula":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","stale":false,"stale_known":true,"within_country_median":0.704163212673851,"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS 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