{"explainer":"running_accountability tracks every archived shutdown_risk prediction (one per country per day, from archive-shutdown-risk-history.py) against the actual KeepItOn-documented shutdowns that followed in the 7 days after. early days have small sample size; validated_backtest contains the v4 trainer's static AUC-0.90 result (full-panel).","generated_at":"2026-05-23T06:30:10.067539+00:00","running_accountability":{"all_time":{"flag_rate":0.0424,"n_actual_shutdowns_following":0,"n_false_negatives":0,"n_false_positives":5,"n_flagged":5,"n_predictions":118,"n_true_positives":0,"precision":0,"recall":null},"first_prediction_date":"2026-05-09","last_30_days":{"flag_rate":0.0424,"n_actual_shutdowns_following":0,"n_false_negatives":0,"n_false_positives":5,"n_flagged":5,"n_predictions":118,"n_true_positives":0,"precision":0,"recall":null},"last_7_days":{"n_predictions":0},"latest_prediction_date":"2026-05-15","n_distinct_countries":60},"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk-accountability/v1","validated_backtest":{"features":["kio_hist_5y","kio_recent_7d"],"honest_caveats":["Real KeepItOn-trained predictor. Country-level only.","Differentiates BETWEEN countries (the bulk of the AUC) much more than WITHIN a country day-to-day.","Score grows over time as new shutdowns are documented; the model is most reliable for countries with established history.","City-level / sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) are not strongly predictable from country aggregates.","Three prior versions (HistGB, LR, isotonic w/ temporal CV) lost this 0.89 signal to overfitting / non-stationary clipping; v4 is the minimal scorer that preserves it."],"honest_validation":{"auc_full_panel":0.9047186732990364,"combined":{"auc":0.9047186732990364,"pr_auc":0.23588901376468524},"comment":"These are full-panel AUCs because the predictor is essentially a country base-rate that grows over time as new shutdowns are documented. The 0.89 expresses how well the score RANKS country-days by true future shutdown probability. The model differentiates BETWEEN countries far more than WITHIN a country.","method":"score formula evaluated on the full labeled panel (no fold splits — the feature is non-stationary; rolling-origin clipping pathology made v1/v2/v3 underperform their own input)","pr_auc_full_panel":0.23588901376468524,"raw_kio_hist_5y":{"auc":0.9033798932711867,"pr_auc":0.22387442336610539},"raw_kio_recent_7d":{"auc":0.6825506681483191,"pr_auc":0.195275699742243}},"model_kind":"isotonic_calibrated_score","n_countries":60,"n_train":95561,"recommended_threshold":0.19681577587691598,"score_formula":"combined_h5_plus_2x_r7","threshold_metrics":{"f1":0.40828402366863903,"precision":0.4594894561598224,"recall":0.3673469387755102},"train_positive_rate":0.01179351409047624,"trained_at":"2026-05-23T06:30:06.294114+00:00","version":"shutdown_risk_v4"},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}