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mostly ranks countries by how often they have had shutdowns. It has not been shown to predict when a new shutdown will start; within-country timing is unvalidated (B1600).","The served version can change daily: an automatic gate chooses it. Read model_version before citing anything.","In the strict past->future holdout (isotonic fitted on the first 75% of dates, scored on the rest): cross-country AUC 0.910, country-ranking AUC 0.944, PR lift 8.62x over the base rate; within-country median AUC 0.415 over 13 countries, below chance (0.5). The cross-country figures compare countries; they do not time a shutdown within a country. The in-sample within-country median is cross-sectional (full panel, in-sample isotonic), not forward skill.","v9 replaces v5's multiplicative product with a logit-additive blend (alpha=0.6 on structural risk). The product collapsed to ~0 when honest_forecast was near-zero for a country, annihilating a good structural signal; the logit blend cannot zero out either factor.","In-sample within-country median AUC 0.592 (full panel, in-sample isotonic; not forward skill), lower than the 0.729 cited for v5 before: a drop, not an improvement. In the strict past->future holdout the v9 within-country median AUC is 0.415 over 13 countries, below chance (0.5); the forward cross-country AUC is 0.910. Leave-one-country-out selection only chose the blend weight (alpha=0.60); it does not show within-country timing skill.","Still country-level; sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder. Low-N countries are sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Same two honestly-validated base models as v5 (v4 structural + honest_forecast_v1). No new external features (unlike the gated v7 CF-Radar and v8 GDELT attempts) — purely a better combiner.","WHAT 'low' MEANS HERE: this ranks the risk of a FULL national internet SHUTDOWN (KeepItOn-style total blackout), NOT general censorship. A heavy-censorship country (e.g. AZ, AE, EG) correctly reads 'low' if it rarely does FULL shutdowns -- it can still be among the most censored (see /censorship-index and /v1/atlas). The blend weights the shutdown-validated structural model (v4) 0.6 over honest_forecast 0.4 BY DESIGN: honest_forecast is a broad censorship-anomaly signal that is noisy for shutdowns specifically (it scores e.g. Spain ~0.78), and the 0.6 structural weight was leave-one-country-out validated. So a country with high honest_forecast but low structural risk is correctly down-weighted here."],"honest_validation":{"forward_country_ranking_auc":0.9443535188216039,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_auc":0.9096167039580881,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_pr_lift":8.623059324566388,"forward_temporal_n_countries":13,"forward_temporal_within_median":0.4148865153538051,"full_panel_auc":0.9307268807729859,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.3448620681212735,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes; alpha chosen by leave-one-country-out","n_countries_scored_within":24,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":4,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":1,"per_country":[{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.6090676794867828,"hf_only_auc":0.5253082552059161,"n":1770,"pos":972,"sr_only_auc":0.6489919500397084},{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.6281575351896375,"hf_only_auc":0.41629023375027796,"n":1770,"pos":718,"sr_only_auc":0.6863237022993741},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.6213371747402264,"hf_only_auc":0.6101892278816675,"n":1770,"pos":307,"sr_only_auc":0.4937881422537689},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.6062631325789221,"hf_only_auc":0.5567566503239019,"n":1770,"pos":231,"sr_only_auc":0.5849064299356697},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.6107414596273293,"hf_only_auc":0.5556832298136646,"n":1770,"pos":160,"sr_only_auc":0.6163082298136646},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.5437676781139396,"hf_only_auc":0.5421485726696975,"n":1770,"pos":123,"sr_only_auc":0.5235214556152847},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.4922673340873045,"hf_only_auc":0.4905140165025999,"n":1768,"pos":89,"sr_only_auc":0.43295902456652235},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.35805627790360617,"hf_only_auc":0.35319557456962036,"n":1766,"pos":63,"sr_only_auc":0.47566386116004433},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.5260442117510181,"hf_only_auc":0.5825596276905177,"n":1769,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.5352472367655613},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.5590662761327657,"hf_only_auc":0.5585267227169776,"n":1770,"pos":49,"sr_only_auc":0.4645554909936083},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.490313602292769,"hf_only_auc":0.46724812610229277,"n":1770,"pos":42,"sr_only_auc":0.4837962962962963},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.5897970966677665,"hf_only_auc":0.5500989772352358,"n":1767,"pos":35,"sr_only_auc":0.5741916859122402},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.8815900383141763,"hf_only_auc":0.8464176245210728,"n":1770,"pos":30,"sr_only_auc":0.37515325670498084},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.5785714285714285,"hf_only_auc":0.7918841220698807,"n":1643,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.2943498452012384},{"country":"TM","ensemble_auc":0.6283296572785884,"hf_only_auc":0.6655285035629454,"n":1712,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.2638064133016627},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.5946255002858776,"hf_only_auc":0.32854147948487566,"n":1770,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.7211467777505512},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.6484249503117427,"hf_only_auc":0.5039886737999946,"n":1770,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.7562416619020392},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.6559347543117475,"hf_only_auc":0.7622030589000977,"n":1770,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.48191913439635536},{"country":"ID","ensemble_auc":0.40580179888177625,"hf_only_auc":0.5051454501255976,"n":1770,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.13698241633579122},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.7694271128757799,"hf_only_auc":0.7338141155497934,"n":1770,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.3485536018150879},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.013611246546400089,"hf_only_auc":0.018446286364375092,"n":1765,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.07593856655290104},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.4704685974617638,"hf_only_auc":0.8123169541164985,"n":1763,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.03388382687927105},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.7935337492909813,"hf_only_auc":0.9747994489911677,"n":1770,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.313953488372093},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.12920346811441538,"hf_only_auc":0.4257353536990519,"n":1770,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.026375496313102653}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.5501834067006977,"within_country_auc_median":0.592211298476822,"within_country_is_cross_sectional":true},"loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v9","n_countries":60,"recommended_threshold":0.2,"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk-leaderboard/v1","score_formula":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))","sources":[{"id":"keepiton_stop","name":"Access Now #KeepItOn STOP dataset","role":"shutdown labels and shutdown history","url":"https://www.accessnow.org/keepiton-data-dashboard/"},{"id":"ooni_daily_counts","name":"OONI measurements","role":"daily measurement and anomaly counts (features)","url":"https://ooni.org/data/","license":"CC BY-NC-SA 4.0","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/"}],"radar_fed":false,"sources_note":"This serving version reads no Cloudflare Radar data. An automatic daily check picks which version serves, and it can pick one that uses Radar (shutdown_risk_v7 or shutdown_risk_v8); when it does, Cloudflare Radar (CC BY-NC 4.0) is named here."}