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(the real product): in a strict past->future temporal holdout the CROSS-COUNTRY ranking holds \u2014 full-panel AUC ~0.87, country-ranking AUC ~0.90, 7.8x PR-lift over base rate. The model reliably tells you WHICH countries are heading into danger, forward in time. BUT the within-country median AUC is CROSS-SECTIONAL (full panel, in-sample isotonic) \u2014 it measures day-ranking when the model has seen the whole period, NOT forward skill. In a strict past->future temporal holdout, within-country timing AUC is ~0.38 (below chance), for BOTH v5 and v9, driven by non-stationarity (shutdowns cluster in time). USE THIS MODEL FOR *WHICH* COUNTRY IS AT RISK (cross-country full-panel AUC 0.90, which IS forward-meaningful), NOT as a within-country *WHEN* oracle.","v9 replaces v5's multiplicative product with a logit-additive blend (alpha=0.6 on structural risk). The product collapsed to ~0 when honest_forecast was near-zero for a country, annihilating a good structural signal; the logit blend cannot zero out either factor.","Within-country median AUC 0.698 vs v5 0.729. Improvement confirmed by leave-one-country-out alpha selection (all 23 folds chose alpha=0.60; held-out median +0.0095, mean +0.0131, 18/23 countries up).","Still country-level; sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder. Low-N countries are sample-size limited, not model-limited.","Same two honestly-validated base models as v5 (v4 structural + honest_forecast_v1). No new external features (unlike the gated v7 CF-Radar and v8 GDELT attempts) \u2014 purely a better combiner.","WHAT 'low' MEANS HERE: this ranks the risk of a FULL national internet SHUTDOWN (KeepItOn-style total blackout), NOT general censorship. A heavy-censorship country (e.g. AZ, AE, EG) correctly reads 'low' if it rarely does FULL shutdowns -- it can still be among the most censored (see /censorship-index and /v1/atlas). The blend weights the shutdown-validated structural model (v4) 0.6 over honest_forecast 0.4 BY DESIGN: honest_forecast is a broad censorship-anomaly signal that is noisy for shutdowns specifically (it scores e.g. Spain ~0.78), and the 0.6 structural weight was leave-one-country-out validated. So a country with high honest_forecast but low structural risk is correctly down-weighted here."],"honest_validation":{"forward_country_ranking_auc":0.8903436988543372,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_auc":0.8716273819562756,"forward_temporal_crosscountry_pr_lift":9.422676138569912,"forward_temporal_n_countries":13,"forward_temporal_within_median":0.45311220311220307,"full_panel_auc":0.882230225369921,"full_panel_pr_auc":0.16149625408501544,"method":"full-panel scoring; within-country AUCs for countries with >=5 KeepItOn positive days + both classes; alpha chosen by leave-one-country-out","n_countries_scored_within":23,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_065":12,"n_countries_within_auc_ge_080":3,"per_country":[{"country":"MM","ensemble_auc":0.7115387482243903,"hf_only_auc":0.36940350159831503,"n":1718,"pos":341,"sr_only_auc":0.8054762254635752},{"country":"IN","ensemble_auc":0.7391129753369425,"hf_only_auc":0.36919150043083127,"n":1718,"pos":203,"sr_only_auc":0.8046399713863013},{"country":"RU","ensemble_auc":0.7373018624797529,"hf_only_auc":0.4680728845924952,"n":1718,"pos":121,"sr_only_auc":0.7283051382499209},{"country":"PK","ensemble_auc":0.6978355800265805,"hf_only_auc":0.593726436843961,"n":1718,"pos":115,"sr_only_auc":0.684607664975996},{"country":"TZ","ensemble_auc":0.5731793641271745,"hf_only_auc":0.5713497300539891,"n":1717,"pos":50,"sr_only_auc":0.5600539892021594},{"country":"IQ","ensemble_auc":0.7662416151955901,"hf_only_auc":0.6643554492926879,"n":1718,"pos":45,"sr_only_auc":0.7257687454340174},{"country":"IR","ensemble_auc":0.6289002787519108,"hf_only_auc":0.4996133441237299,"n":1718,"pos":33,"sr_only_auc":0.6074094056289902},{"country":"JO","ensemble_auc":0.5132396449704142,"hf_only_auc":0.5976965342349958,"n":1718,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.4196005917159763},{"country":"TR","ensemble_auc":0.7764687235841081,"hf_only_auc":0.7354184277261201,"n":1718,"pos":28,"sr_only_auc":0.6374260355029586},{"country":"KE","ensemble_auc":0.7569011075504583,"hf_only_auc":0.568420756732445,"n":1715,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6593017372238152},{"country":"SD","ensemble_auc":0.4341265153432903,"hf_only_auc":0.25822012207127387,"n":1714,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.6472730852530024},{"country":"SY","ensemble_auc":0.5100132197001659,"hf_only_auc":0.39459398644277555,"n":1714,"pos":21,"sr_only_auc":0.5781649931088797},{"country":"VE","ensemble_auc":0.8023281433607521,"hf_only_auc":0.9503892479435958,"n":1718,"pos":16,"sr_only_auc":0.48114350763807284},{"country":"BY","ensemble_auc":0.5124706572769953,"hf_only_auc":0.2651743796109993,"n":1718,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.5701291079812206},{"country":"GN","ensemble_auc":0.8015898179182898,"hf_only_auc":0.7635202463991304,"n":1591,"pos":14,"sr_only_auc":0.6364933417882054},{"country":"ET","ensemble_auc":0.2029306170159472,"hf_only_auc":0.20338983050847453,"n":1718,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4979544126241964},{"country":"ID","ensemble_auc":0.3471654003506721,"hf_only_auc":0.43850713868247476,"n":1718,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.38866160140268846},{"country":"KG","ensemble_auc":0.49561659848042083,"hf_only_auc":0.6959171745846205,"n":1718,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.24313267095265928},{"country":"NG","ensemble_auc":0.7366619353761377,"hf_only_auc":0.7574517825832846,"n":1718,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.4979544126241964},{"country":"OM","ensemble_auc":0.043836878244850094,"hf_only_auc":0.03173672751632893,"n":1713,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.49794841735052753},{"country":"TG","ensemble_auc":0.7116867873910128,"hf_only_auc":0.8080985915492958,"n":1711,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.369424882629108},{"country":"US","ensemble_auc":0.8575603239542458,"hf_only_auc":0.9718627369124155,"n":1718,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.32349503214494446},{"country":"VN","ensemble_auc":0.23611922852133255,"hf_only_auc":0.39283626951657347,"n":1718,"pos":7,"sr_only_auc":0.36060783167738164}],"within_country_auc_mean":0.5909924357904971,"within_country_auc_median":0.6978355800265805,"within_country_is_cross_sectional":true},"loaded":true,"model_version":"shutdown_risk_v9","n_countries":60,"recommended_threshold":0.14,"schema":"voidly-shutdown-risk-leaderboard/v1","score_formula":"isotonic(sigmoid(0.6*logit(shutdown_risk_v4_prob) + 0.40*logit(honest_forecast_v1_prob)))"}